The spectre is here.

Some call it recession.

Let us look at some facts.

Indian farmers are reaping their second bumper harvest in a row.

The IMF’s update to its World Economic Outlook estimates that the Indian economy is expected to grow at 5.1% in 2009. It is estimated that the world economy will only grow at 0.3%.

Thereafter the recovery will start.

For 2010, IMF foresaw an impressive global recovery to 3% growth, with China’s 8% and India’s 6.5% leading the way. The US will bounce back to grow by 1.6%, the Euro area will grow by a minuscule 0.2%, the UK by a similar rate and Japan by a somewhat better 0.6%.

Reference: TOI 30^th January 2009

The economists say that these events of growth & decline are cyclical.

Let us call it a phenomenon

Some call it untimely.

We have a mythological trilogy of Brahma, Vishnu & Mahesh.

The ancient wisdom had recognised the inevitability of this cycle.

It is a phase whose time is due, an economic event which has chosen to unfold at this time.

Let us call it an event

Some call it a problem.

The problem is not the event.

The problem is that we were not prepared for this event.

Even bigger problem is our readiness (or lack of it) when the next cycle greets us.

We have no control over the existence & timing of such events. But we do have control of over our response to an event.

The problems are like daggers that this phase is throwing at us. We can choose to hold it from blade & bleed. Or, we can choose to hold it from the handle & voila, it is an opportunity.

Let us look at this event as an opportunity

How should we respond to this opportunity?

There are three main components to a business enterprise.

People, Product & Process

All three components will need to change for an effective response.

Let us look at one hypothetical response that covers the spectrum.

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